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Kind of impossible as an economic doctrine and other musings

Housing crisis will escalate for numerous reasons:

  • Supply will be dwarfed by ongoing demand as immigration is increased to ‘grow the pie’ and chase ‘economic growth’ (bigger GDP numbers that don’t reflect the reality of average joe's life in poverty 10,000 years after some OG figured out basic agriculture and stick gluing)

  • Builders and Property Developers have suffered mass insolvencies from COVID price inflation in fixed price contracts

    • Meanwhile capital values have exploded

    • Value in holding no risk property, no value in high-risk development as seen by the 100+ collapses in the industry

  • No real incentive to fix the problem when most households ‘loosely’ benefit from escalating house prices

    • Average House earns more in capital gains with 10% movement than most professionals nowadays

    • No efforts from anyone in government (NZ or Aus) to fix the tax system despite this being raised in numerous IGRs.

    • Focus on making sure 'those within the circle' are OK and ignoring wider society, numerous advisory bodies providing advice out into the ether (no recipient or actions from it)

Next 5-10 years are complete pointless are outcomes will not reflect efforts for most people.

FIAT money + DEBT addiction is the root cause of this not w investor, x regulator, y council, or lazy Gen Z’s.

Eventually we require an economic model that does not suggest infinite (productivity) growth is possible. Think climate change, limited green metals.

Limited tech uplift remains in this long cycle with no pathways to fillings gaps or placeholders in IGRs.

Social Outcomes get worse until leaders address this. 

Investment Strategy:

1 Buy Bitcoin at the cost of its production ($20k - $30k USD and sell after next halving in 24)

2 Buy high-yield res property

3 Short AUD vs USD

4 Watch energy + fuel get pricey

Email me if you have interesting projects to work on:

- Industry Leading Financial Modeller

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- Big Four Deal Advisory (2013 - 2017)

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- Seed Model for World's largest Tattoo Removal Group (2019) 

- NBA Topshot Beta (2020) [40,000% Investment]

- Developed world's first commercialised Soil Carbon Sequestration MVP (2022)

- Banking Transformation Leader (2023)

- 15 Years financial modelling experience across Corporate Strategy, Private Equity and Startups

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