First-instance work on the AU NEM is underway. The national waterfall is less useful at AU scale than the regional one — Pilbara, South Australia, and Queensland each present structurally distinct productive-surplus profiles, and the bankability case rewrites at the node level.
In Q4 2025, 31% of NEM intervals priced negatively. Negative pricing concentrates in regions and times, not uniformly across the system. Marginal Loss Factors and effective delivered price (p_eff) rewrite the bankability case for every node. Industrial siting matters more than national averages.
Cluster 02 (Grid Arbitrage) dominates the bankable opportunity set in NEM regions with persistent midday surplus. Cluster 04 (Sovereign + Defence) follows, anchored by RAAF Tindal microgrid procurement and adjacent installations under ERCIP-equivalent authorities.
First-instance regional calibration is in flight against AEMO and ABS data. Public-facing case to be published Q3 2026. Pre-publication access is available under engagement. Where a calibration is not yet validated, this page says so — the firm does not present in-flight work as completed work.
Investors, sovereign clients, and DFIs can engage now for pre-publication access to the regional calibration. The framework is the same; the data is being assembled.
Pre-publication engagements run under confidentiality. Standard procurement applies.