The Surplus-to-Structure framework was first calibrated against NZ data. The result was politically uncomfortable and analytically robust: the waterfall returns Band A for every year of the back-test, and current trajectories do not change that.
The national waterfall allocates supply across four tiers: floor (essential needs), comfortable living, resilience reserve, and productive surplus. Calibrated against MBIE Energy in New Zealand data and back-tested across 2000–2024, the allocation returns Band A — no productive surplus available — for every single year of the back-test. EDGS Reference (62 TWh by 2050) and EDGS Growth (72 TWh) both remain Band A. Productive abundance (Band C or higher) requires roughly 90 TWh by 2035 — about double the current trajectory.
The framework does not recommend a policy position. It does reframe the question. If New Zealand intends to be a country where renewable abundance creates new industrial value, the volume of electricity needed is roughly twice what current EDGS scenarios deliver — and the composition of new demand matters as much as the volume.
Food processing emerged as the largest single sectoral sensitivity in the wealth-per-TWh decomposition. That finding alone shifts the framing of any abundance-pathway debate. The framework provides analytical scaffolding for whichever pathway is chosen — including the choice to remain in the current Band A range.
Data sources: MBIE Energy in New Zealand, Stats NZ, EECA, EDGS 2024. Model version: CM-0 v5 with sectoral decomposition CM-1 / CM-8. Sensitivity analysis run against population projections, productivity assumptions, and electrification rates. Confidence levels (A audited through E placeholder) are visible on every output. Full methodology is available under engagement; an abbreviated version is in the public library page.
The NZ case took the first calibration of CM-0 — roughly twelve weeks. Subsequent jurisdictions inherit the universal layer and require re-instantiating five cores. New countries are now 12–24 weeks to first instance.
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